The Association of Kazakhstan Automotive Business (AKAB) announced the results of 2015
Over the 12 months of 2015, official dealers sold 97 units. new cars, which is 446% lower than the results of 40,4 (2014 units). The results of the year confirmed the forecast of ACAB, which included maintaining the disparity exchange rate of the tenge by the National Bank in the first three quarters of the year. On average, 163 units were sold monthly in Kazakhstan in 530. new cars.
A 36% decline in car sales was also recorded in Russia; among neighbors, the result of the decline in volumes was a reduction in the range of models and the transition of some companies to a pre-order system. Many dealerships were closed, and those that remained stopped purchasing models that were in low demand. In turn, the Kazakh car market was strongly influenced by the spontaneous import of used and new cars from the Russian Federation at the beginning of 2015 and the end of 2014.
The first half of 2015, due to the number of passenger cars imported into Kazakhstan under gray schemes (over 150 thousand), was accompanied by an accelerated decline in the market activity of the car market. According to the results of 6 months of 2015, official participants of auto retail sold 53261 units. passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, which is 30% lower than the same period in 2014. The source of the stable reduction in the sales segment remained the influence of Russian imports. However, on May 26, 2015, by order of the Ministry of Investment and Development of the Republic of Kazakhstan, a ban was introduced on the import from EAEU member countries of cars that do not meet the requirements of the Euro-4 standard and the Technical Regulations of the Customs Union “On the Safety of Wheeled Vehicles”, which contributed to a decrease in the import of cars that do not comply with new standards from the EAEU countries.
The dynamics of sales during 2015 were determined by a number of other factors influencing the consumer demand of Kazakhstanis. The market peaked in May 2015, a month after the launch of the preferential car loan program. In the first 3 months of 2015, the share of Kazakhstan-made cars accounted for 11% of the total volume of official sales; by the end of the year, this figure exceeded the 3% mark, confirming the success of the program implemented with the support of the government and the Baiterek holding. The launch of preferential lending also activated the market for financial structures of automobile companies representing imported cars, which offered buyers no less favorable conditions for purchasing a car in installments and on credit, discounts, etc. Automakers in Kazakhstan, in turn, continue to work to provide more affordable prices for the Kazakh buyer: intensified negotiations with factories to equalize the purchase price for the same models in the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation, and the introduction of a number of marketing tools. Today, about 17% of cars in the affordable segment in the Republic of Kazakhstan - up to 60 million tenge - are sold on credit. This is a good result from last year, taking into account the eight-month disparity in the tenge exchange rate, the massive import of cars from Russia at the beginning of the year and the oversaturation of the used car market.
In the second half of 2015, changes in the exchange rate of the national currency against the US dollar significantly influenced the consumer behavior of Kazakhstanis in relation to the first half of the year, and, in particular, the decision to purchase new cars. In the third and fourth quarters, 44185 commercial vehicles and passenger cars were sold. In the sales structure, national manufacturers sold 16878 units, which is 47,72% less than last year’s sales (32281 units).
Over the 11 months of 2015, production in Kazakhstan showed a decrease to 12510 units, with the minimum percentage drop in volumes recorded at the plant in Semey. Automakers continue to work to increase localization, which is one of the main requirements of the state. Today, the maximum percentage of localization has been achieved by the Kostanay and Almaty production sites, where production using the small-knot CKD method has been established.
Andrey Lavrentyev, President of the Association of Kazakhstan Automotive Business
“As a trend in the automobile market in 2016, I will note the maximum shift in demand in favor of cars costing up to 4,5 million tenge and the gradual accumulation of pent-up demand. In addition, given the increasing competition between official dealers and distributors, automobile companies will offer consumers the most favorable purchasing conditions, the market will develop more qualitatively, offering a wide range of additional services and maximum discounts. As for production, the auto industry is aimed at increasing the level of localization and expanding the production of world brands that are already popular in the Republic of Kazakhstan.”
According to calculations by ACAB analysts, the forecast for car sales on the official market in 2016 will be 70 units. The 000% drop was based on satisfied demand at the beginning of 28, expectations of slower economic growth as a result of low oil prices and crises in neighboring China and Russia. Looking ahead, a decline in exports of key commodities and a slowdown in lending to the economy will put pressure on consumer demand in 2015.
Top 20 brands based on the results of January-December 2015
The maximum decline in the top 20 was observed in Nissan (-70%) and Chevrolet (-68%), growth was demonstrated by Iveco (+53%) and Volkswagen (+10%).
| Brand name | 2014 | 2015 | Growth 2015/2014 |
| LADA | 45234 | 24545 | -45,74% |
| Hyundai | 13960 | 11170 | -19,99% |
| Kia | 17709 | 9389 | -46,98% |
| Renault | 8181 | 8202 | + 0,26% |
| Toyota | 12455 | 7232 | -41,93% |
| GAZ | 6897 | 5228 | -24,20% |
| Daewoo | 11118 | 4929 | -55,67% |
| Volkswagen | 4096 | 4523 | + 10,42 % |
| UAZ | 4235 | 3815 | -9,92% |
| Chevrolet | 11764 | 3748 | -68,14% |
| Skoda | 5573 | 2277 | -59,14% |
| GEELY | 2182 | 1944 | -10,91% |
| Nissan | 5759 | 1687 | -70,71% |
| KAMAZ | 935 | ||
| Subaru | 1033 | 841 | -18,59% |
| Mitsubishi | 2050 | 840 | -59,02% |
| SsangYong | 2248 | 810 | -63,97% |
| Iveco | 374 | 574 | + 53,48 % |
| Lexus
| 882 | 544 | -38,32% |
| Peugeot | 1219 | 526 | -56,85%
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The Hyundai brand showed jumps in sales in top models, both cars and SUVs.
| Top 10 Kazakh SUVs based on sales results for January-December 2015 | Top 10 Kazakh sedans based on sales results for January-December 2015 |
More detailed information on the results of the automobile market in Kazakhstan will be presented in the planned AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY REVIEW FOR DECEMBER 2015.
For your information:
The Association of Kazakhstan Automotive Business is a non-profit organization founded in 2010 as a voluntary association of official dealers, importers, and distributors of the automobile market of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
The main goal of the association is to form a transparent automobile market in the Republic of Kazakhstan, help ACAB members obtain information, prepare reports and reviews, and also help members of the Association and government services solve problems that arise in the car market of the Republic.
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