According to AKAB, in 2016, 7,351 units of commercial vehicles were sold on the official sales market, including 5,218 trucks, 2,082 light commercial vehicles and 51 busesCompared to the sales volume last year (15,969 units), the decline was 54%, while the rate of decline increased (in 2015 it was 13%).
The main reason for the decline in sales was a decline in effective demand due to inflation and the depreciation of the tenge. The economy was adversely affected by a significant decline in oil and metal prices on the global market, a decline in demand for Kazakhstan's exports due to the recession, and slowing economic growth in Russia, China, and the Eurozone. Furthermore, it's important to consider the increase in car prices due to the introduction of the initial registration fee. However, due to economic stabilization, a certain recovery was already observed in the fourth quarter of 2016.
The negative market dynamics are particularly noticeable when compared to similar periods in previous years. Clearly, 2016 was the most challenging year for the commercial vehicle market since the onset of the crisis.
Sales 2016
The leaders in the commercial vehicle market are GAZ (33%), KAMAZ (18%), and UAZ (15%). The market share of the latter two, together with Hyundai Com Trans Kazakhstan, increased significantly, thanks to last year's leader, LADA (from 38% to 12%).
Hyundai Com Trans Kazakhstan (almost doubling sales growth) and Hyundai and JAC (more than doubling sales growth compared to low volumes in 2015) are significantly outpacing others. Among the major players, KAMAZ is increasing sales (by 42%), while GAZ (halving sales), UAZ, and, especially, LADA (almost sevenfold) have seen significant declines.
It is worth noting that Hyundai Com Trans (plant in Almaty) began exporting to the Russian Federation in 2016.
However, there is a significant difference in regional sales.
The leader in the commercial vehicle market is the Almaty region.
According to the registration database, 51,457 trucks older than ten years are registered in the region, 1,031 are new (up to 3 years old), and 5,631 are 3-10 years old.
South Kazakhstan Region ranks second in the number of commercial vehicle registrations: 39,460 trucks over ten years old, 5,906 aged 3-10 years, and 801 new vehicles.
Almaty is in third place with 21,954 cars older than ten years, 9,955 cars aged 3-10 years, and 2,189 new trucks.
Western Kazakhstan has the lowest concentration of commercial vehicles—only 589 new vehicles, 2,175 trucks aged 3-10 years, and 9,785 older trucks. Even older vehicles are five times fewer in the West Kazakhstan region than in the Almaty region.
As for brands, the most popular among all cars are GAZ, KAMAZ, ZIL, which account for almost 70% of the market.
Among new commercial vehicles, KAMAZ, SHACMAN and GAZ are popular, accounting for 52,3% of the market.
According to forecasts by ACAB analysts, based on a correlation with GDP growth, sales of commercial vehicles could recover to pre-crisis levels by 2019 (if economic stability and the projected GDP growth dynamics are maintained).
This year, sales are expected to grow in certain market segments, but overall, the market will recover slowly, as a number of objective factors (changes in the second-tier banking sector, a decline in business activity, etc.) are affecting businesses' willingness to invest in equipment upgrades.
A more detailed forecast for the commercial vehicle market will be presented in August of this year.
Important information for understanding the market
Registrations include all transactions on the market, including:
Initial official sales;
Primary sales by grey dealers (cars imported by them in previous months)
Sales on the used car market (i.e. resale by individuals of used cars already driving in the Republic of Kazakhstan);
Import of cars from the Customs Union countries and from third countries, both by individuals and grey dealers;
Making changes to the vehicle registration document – installation of gas cylinder equipment, other changes to the technical characteristics of the vehicle;
Replacement of the vehicle registration certificate and state registration plate due to the vehicle being moved to another region or due to loss;
Temporary import from other countries;
Entering into inheritance, acceptance under a gift or lease agreement.
Vehicle registrations include the following types of vehicles: passenger cars (including light commercial vehicles weighing up to 3,5 tonnes), minibuses, buses (with more than 16 seats, excluding the driver's seat), trucks (weighing over 3,5 tonnes), trailers and semi-trailers.
For your information:
The Kazakhstan Automotive Business Association is a non-profit organization founded in 2010 as a voluntary association of official dealers, importers, and distributors in the Kazakh automotive market. AKAB members provide sales information exclusively and officially, while registration information is officially provided to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
The association's primary goal is to create a transparent automotive market in the Republic of Kazakhstan, assist its members in obtaining information, preparing reports and reviews, and assisting its members and government agencies in resolving issues that arise in the Republic's automotive market.
Additional information, interview requests, comments:
pr@akab.kz, 77072120123 @yandex.ru, +7 707 212 01 23 (Astana) Information Policy Advisor Assol Mirmanova
j.krongart@akab.kz, julia.krongart@gmail.com, +7 701 206 07 28 (Almaty) Presidential Advisor Yulia Krongart